Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Dialling in the breakout.... RIMM
We went long RIMM today, as it crossed the previous High of $80.59 and closed at the day's high... We are buying the breakout here as we like the setup of the risk-reward ....
We suspect the current breakout is going to get attention from the trading world and the media...and we hope to see RIMM test previous highs of 86, over the next few trading sessions... We would have loved to see some more volume on the breakout.... But we want to press ahead of the trade, keeping a close stop of $80.50, in case of any reversals.....
We suspect the current breakout is going to get attention from the trading world and the media...and we hope to see RIMM test previous highs of 86, over the next few trading sessions... We would have loved to see some more volume on the breakout.... But we want to press ahead of the trade, keeping a close stop of $80.50, in case of any reversals.....
Recovery.... comes as a cost......
While the mainstream media, analyst communities and govt authorities are cheering that we are out of the woods and we have averted a major depression, we want us to pay attention to the chart below....
This is a plot of S&P 500 v/s the USD Dollar with the dotted lines, classifying the time period since March 09. Ain't the two plots look a mirror image of each other....
The Equity markets got a big jolt up since the Federal Reserve declared its mega QE (Quantitative Easing) program after its March Meeting. As the Equity market have gained swiftly since, the recovery effort has primarily been at the cost of trashing the dollar. As the dollar has weakened, the wealth of anyone and everyone holding Dollar Assets has gone down. The burden of the weakening dollar is shared by the population at large, in terms of high commodity prices - such as Sugar, which is at an all time high, steadily climbing Copper prices (which has moved more than doubled to $2.8), Gold prices (currently around a High for 2009) and Oil prices (having moved from $32 per barrel to a nr term High of $75 per barrel)....with the fear of higher taxes, lesser public facilities and a confused healthcare environment running at the back of the mind.....
It goes to show time an again.... that there is really no free lunch.....
This is a plot of S&P 500 v/s the USD Dollar with the dotted lines, classifying the time period since March 09. Ain't the two plots look a mirror image of each other....
The Equity markets got a big jolt up since the Federal Reserve declared its mega QE (Quantitative Easing) program after its March Meeting. As the Equity market have gained swiftly since, the recovery effort has primarily been at the cost of trashing the dollar. As the dollar has weakened, the wealth of anyone and everyone holding Dollar Assets has gone down. The burden of the weakening dollar is shared by the population at large, in terms of high commodity prices - such as Sugar, which is at an all time high, steadily climbing Copper prices (which has moved more than doubled to $2.8), Gold prices (currently around a High for 2009) and Oil prices (having moved from $32 per barrel to a nr term High of $75 per barrel)....with the fear of higher taxes, lesser public facilities and a confused healthcare environment running at the back of the mind.....
It goes to show time an again.... that there is really no free lunch.....
Stopped out in Gold puts
We got stopped out in our gold puts position, as the precious metal did a U-turn after reaching 982 on the lower end and moving back to 1000. 'Prudent is the best part of valor' - As bulls and bears both make convincing cases for Gold, we want to move away from the counter to better opportunities for the time being and see the drama unfold from sidelines...
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Closing Gold and Buying Puts
With Gold around $989, we are booking our last 20% position in gold. We feel gold has seen a near term top and we will see some profit taking here.
We are taking a small punt with a portion of our profits, buying Oct 95 puts in GLD - which will cost us $1.75 per contract. We are buying the October expiry as we are giving ourselves sometime for the move to mature. If gold rallies back to nr $1000, we will cover our puts.
We are taking a small punt with a portion of our profits, buying Oct 95 puts in GLD - which will cost us $1.75 per contract. We are buying the October expiry as we are giving ourselves sometime for the move to mature. If gold rallies back to nr $1000, we will cover our puts.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Booking another 45% in Gold
A weak close on NY markets doesnt bode too well for the bullion market. Asian investors will wakeup to see the Gold crossing 1000 and coming back in and the knee-jerk reaction would be to book profits.
We are taking another 45% off the table, leaving just 20% to run.
We wont be surprised to see gold in 980 range tommorrow AM EST.
We are taking another 45% off the table, leaving just 20% to run.
We wont be surprised to see gold in 980 range tommorrow AM EST.
Booking 35% position in Gold
1 pm EST
After a Higher open today, crossing the 4 digit mark in months, there has been selling in Gold over the last 2 hrs. We want to book 35% of our long position in Gold, to preserve our profits.
If gold closes below $995 for the day. We will book another 30-40% of our position.
After a Higher open today, crossing the 4 digit mark in months, there has been selling in Gold over the last 2 hrs. We want to book 35% of our long position in Gold, to preserve our profits.
If gold closes below $995 for the day. We will book another 30-40% of our position.
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